Publications

Electoral Realignment? How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour
Under contract with Oxford University Press.
With Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Geoffrey Evans, Jonathan Mellon, and Jack Bailey.

Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World
Oxford University Press (2020)
With Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Geoffrey Evans, Jonathan Mellon, Hermann Schmitt, and Cees van der Eijk

Regularized Regression Can Reintroduce Backdoor Confounding: The Case of Mass Polarization
American Political Science Review, (Forthcoming)
With Jonathan Mellon

Who lacks voter identification? The electoral implication of the Elections Act 2022
Parliamentary Affairs, (Forthcoming)
With Ed Fieldhouse, Ralph Scott, Jack Bailey and Jonathan Mellon

Volatility, Realignment, and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019
PS: Political Science & Politics, 56(4), pp. 537-545 (2023)
With Ed Fieldhouse, Geoffrey Evans, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon, and Jack Bailey

Which Promises Actually Matter? Understanding promissory representation with conjoint analysis of election pledges
Political Studies 71(3), pp. 573–596 (2023)
With Jonathan Mellon, Jordan Urban, and Adam Feldman

How do coronavirus attitudes fit into Britain's ideological landscape?
Parliamentary Affairs, 74(3), pp. 597–616 (2021)
With Jonathan Mellon and Jack Bailey

Correlation with Time Explains the Relationship between Survey Nonresponse and Mass Polarization
Journal of Politics, 83(1), pp. 390-395 (2021)
With Jonathan Mellon

Tremors But No Youthquake: Measuring Changes in the Age and Turnout Gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British General Elections
Electoral Studies, 64 (2020)
With Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon, and Geoffrey Evans

Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election
Parliamentary Affairs, 71(4), pp. 719-737 (2018)
With Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans, Edward Fieldhouse, and Jane Green

The limits of partisan loyalty: How the Scottish independence referendum cost Labour
Electoral Studies, 52, pp. 11-25 (2018)
With Edward Fieldhouse

Missing Non-Voters and Misweighted Samples: Explaining the 2015 Great British Polling Miss
Public Opinion Quarterly, 81 (3), pp. 661-687 (2017)
With Jonathan Mellon

Twitter and Facebook are not Representative of the General Population: Political Attitudes and Demographics of British Social Media users
Research and Politics, 4 (3), pp. 1-9 (2017)
With Jonathan Mellon

Second order electoral rules and national party systems: The Duvergerian effects of European Parliament elections
European Union Politics, 17 (3), pp. 366-386 (2016)

Dimensionality, ideology and party positions towards European integration
West European Politics, 39 (4), pp. 731-754 (2016)

Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election in the UK?
Electoral Studies, 41, pp. 274–278 (2016)

Calling European Union treaty referendums: Electoral and institutional politics
Political Studies, 64 (1), pp. 182-199 (2016)

Building policy scales from manifesto data: a referential content validity approach
Electoral Studies, 35, pp. 88-101 (2014)

Fragmentation revisited: The UK General Election of 2024
West European Politics, (2024)

The 2024 General Election and the Rise of Reform UK
Political Quarterly, (2024)
With Oliver Heath, Humphrey Southall, and Paula Aucott

The End of the EU Affair: The UK General Election of 2019
West European Politics, 44(2), pp. 450-461 (2021)

The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses
Government and Opposition, 53(4), pp. 757-790 (2018)
With Jonathan Mellon

The strange death of multi-party Britain: the UK General Election of 2017
West European Politics, 41(5), pp. 1226-1236 (2018)

Party system fragmentation and single-party government: the British general election of 2015
West European Politics, 39(6), pp. 1299-1310 (2016)
With Jane Green

Learning the right lessons from Labour's 2015 defeat
Juncture, 22 (2), pp 131-141 (2015)
With Jane Green

Turnout for what? The (mis)measurement of electoral participation
in Sex, Lies and Politics, edited by Philip Cowley and Robert Ford, Biteback (2019)

Horses for courses: using internet surveys for researching public opinion and voting behaviour
in The Routledge Handbook of Public Opinion and Voting Behaviour, edited by Justin Fisher, Edward Fieldhouse, Mark N Franklin, Rachel Gibson, Christopher Wlezien, and Marta Cantijoch, Routledge (2018)
With Edward Fieldhouse

Tuned in to public life but turned off politics? Voluntary organisations and political participation
in More Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box, edited by Philip Cowley and Robert Ford, Biteback (2016)

Written representation concerning the 2026 Review of Senedd Constituencies (2024)
With Chris Hanretty

Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(44), (2022)
Mass collaboration led by Nate Breznau.

COVID-19
In UK in a Changing Europe: British Politics after Brexit (2022)
With Jonathan Mellon and Jack Bailey

Evidence submitted to the House of Lords Select Committee on The Electoral Registration and Administration ACT 2013 (2019)
With Edward Fieldhouse, Jonathan Mellon, and Jessica Smith

Assessing the Impact of Individual Electoral Registration using the British Election Study
Report for the Electoral Commission (2018).
With Edward Fieldhouse, Jonathan Mellon, and Jessica Smith.

Evidence submitted to the House of Lords Select Committee On Polling and Digital Media (2017)
With Jonathan Mellon

Survey of public attitudes towards conduct in public life 2014
Report for the Committee on Standards in Public Life (2015).

Public Awareness of Police Accountability
Report for the Committee on Standards in Public Life (2015).