Book

Electoral shocks: The volatile voter in a turbulent world. Oxford University Press (2020). With Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Geoffrey Evans, Jonathan Mellon, Hermann Schmitt, and Cees van der Eijk.

Peer reviewed journal articles

Correlation with Time Explains the Relationship between Survey Nonresponse and Mass Polarization. Journal of Politics, (forthcoming). With Jonathan Mellon.

Tremors But No Youthquake: Measuring Changes in the Age and Turnout Gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British General Elections – with Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon, and Geoffrey Evans. Electoral Studies, 64, (2020).

Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election – with Jon Mellon, Geoff Evans, Ed Fieldhouse, and Jane Green. Parliamentary Affairs, 71 (4), pp. 719–737 (2018).

The limits of partisan loyalty: How the Scottish independence referendum cost Labour – with Ed Fieldhouse. Electoral Studies, 52, pp. 11–25 (2018)

Missing Non-Voters and Misweighted Samples: Explaining the 2015 Great British Polling Miss – with Jon Mellon. Public Opinion Quarterly, 81 (3), pp. 661–687 (2017).

Twitter and Facebook are not Representative of the General Population: Political Attitudes and Demographics of British Social Media users – with Jon Mellon. Research and Politics, 4 (3) (2017)

Second order electoral rules and national party systems: The Duvergerian effects of European Parliament elections. European Union Politics, 17 (3), pp. 366-386 (2016). 

Dimensionality, ideology and party positions towards European integration. West European Politics, 39 (4), pp. 731-754 (2016).

Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election in the UK? Electoral Studies, 41, pp. 274–278 (2016).

Calling European Union treaty referendums: Electoral and institutional politics. Political Studies, 64 (1), pp. 182-199 (2016).  

Building policy scales from manifesto data: a referential content validity approach. Electoral Studies, 35, pp. 88-101 (2014). 

Invited journal articles

The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses – with Jon Mellon. Government and Opposition, 53(4), pp. 757-790 (2018).

The strange death of multi-party Britain: the UK General Election of 2017. West European Politics, 41(5), pp. 1226-1236 (2018). 

Party system fragmentation and single-party government: the British general election of 2015 – with Jane Green. West European Politics, 39 (6), pp. 1299-1310 (2016).

Learning the right lessons from Labour’s 2015 defeat – with Jane Green. Juncture 22 (2), pp 131–141 (2015).

Chapters in edited volumes

Turnout for what? The (mis)measurement of electoral participation. In Sex, Lies and Politics, edited by Philip Cowley and Robert Ford, Biteback (2019).

Horses for courses: using internet surveys for researching public opinion and voting behaviour – with Ed Fieldhouse. In The Routledge Handbook of Public Opinion and Voting Behaviour, edited by Justin Fisher, Edward Fieldhouse, Mark N Franklin, Rachel Gibson, Christopher Wlezien, and Marta Cantijoch, Routledge, (2017).

Tuned in to public life but turned off politics? Voluntary organisations and political participation. In More Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box, edited by Philip Cowley and Robert Ford, Biteback  (2016).